Investors · Market analysis
How we see the UAE industrial market
- AED 1.937tnUAE non-oil foreign trade, H1 2026Dubai Media Office, Jul 2026A base for distribution demand. It says nothing about which submarket.
- +13%Dubai warehouse rents, 2025CBRE, Feb 2026A shortage of good buildings, not of space.
- 26.9m sq ftNew space due in Dubai, 2026 to 2029Knight Frank, Feb 2026More than 7m sq ft is already under way in three districts. That is where we are careful.
- 15.5m TEUJebel Ali container volume, 2024DP World, Feb 2025The port still has room to grow: capacity is 19.4m TEU.
Demand
Demand comes from five places, and each wants a different building
Trade wants docks near ports, a growing population wants small units near homes and manufacturers want power. A site only benefits from the demand that can reach it.
Driver
Evidence
What it needs
Trade and re-export
Non-oil trade AED 1.937tn in H1 2026, up 13.1%; Jebel Ali 15.5m TEU in 2024
Dubai Media Office, Jul 2026; DP World, Feb 2025
Docks and yard near ports, airports and the main corridors
Manufacturing
Industrial GDP AED 205bn in 2023, target AED 300bn by 2031; 2,800+ facilities in Sharjah
MoIAT, Dec 2024; Invest in Sharjah, May 2026
Power, floor loading and yard, usually on longer occupancy
Population
Dubai 4.74m by July 2026; Sharjah 2.14m in 2025, up 51% in a decade
The National, Jul 2026; Sharjah Department of Statistics, Jun 2026
Small and mid sized units close to housing
E-commerce
AED 32.3bn in 2024, forecast AED 50.6bn by 2029
EZDubai / Euromonitor, May 2025
Clear height and power for automation
Infrastructure
Etihad Rail 148,000 containers in 2025, 60m tonnes a year targeted by 2030; Sajaa Bonded Dry Port open since Dec 2025
AGBI, Mar 2026; The National, Oct 2025; Gulftainer, Dec 2025
Inland logistics and bonded storage on new links
+13.1%Dubai Media Office, Jul 2025 and Jul 2026
Knight Frank, Sep 2026
E-commerce changes the building as well as the amount of space: more loading, more staff, and a reason to pay more for land near where people live.
Companies moving supply chains and regional offices to the UAE add to demand, but nobody yet measures how much industrial space that creates.
Supply
New supply is a district problem, not a city one
More than 7m sq ft is under construction in three Dubai districts. Elsewhere, what is being built matters more than how much.
Knight Frank, Feb 2026. 2029 is not broken out separately; 2026 to 2029 totals 26.9m sq ft.
Where it is coming
Dubai: more than 7m sq ft under development in Al Warsan, National Industries Park and Dubai South
Cushman & Wakefield Core, Oct 2025
Abu Dhabi: KEZAD adding 250,000 sqm of logistics space
AD Ports Group, Mar 2026
Northern Emirates: more than 10m sq ft already available
Knight Frank, H1 2026
Dubai’s 2026 to 2029 forecast was revised roughly fourfold in six months
Knight Frank, Feb 2026
Published figures do not split the pipeline by unit size, specification, or speculative versus pre-let. Those splits decide whether a scheme competes with a given site, so we count them ourselves.
Rent
The fastest rent growth is not the safest to underwrite
Rent rises where good space is scarce and slows once supply catches up. Al Quoz has been through that; Dubai South is in the middle of it.
Source: Knight Frank, Sep 2026 (Dubai); Jul 2025 (Northern Emirates). Change is year on year.
Source: Knight Frank, Sep 2026 and H1 2026.
What moves rent within a submarket
- Location
- LowerLonger truck routes, further from labour
- HigherClose to ports, highways and labour
- Age
- LowerOlder stock
- HigherRecent build
- Clear height
- LowerLow eaves
- HigherHeight for racking and automation
- Power
- LowerStandard supply
- HigherCapacity for automation and cold storage
- Loading and yard
- LowerFew docks, tight yard
- HigherDock levellers, deep truck court
- Unit size
- LowerLarge single units
- HigherSmall and mid sized units, per sq ft
- Lease terms
- LowerLong rent free and incentives
- HigherFew incentives
The emirates
Each emirate is its own market
Land rules, rents, occupiers, utilities and buyers all differ. Where our sources have no comparable figure, we say so.
Dubai
- Rent
- Grade A AED 90 psf in Al Quoz (+6%), AED 55 psf in Dubai South (+22%), H1 2026
- Knight Frank, Sep 2026
- Occupancy and supply
- Above 95% occupied in central locations; more than 7m sq ft under construction in Al Warsan, National Industries Park and Dubai South
- Knight Frank, Feb 2026; Cushman & Wakefield Core, Oct 2025
- Capital
- Prologis opened a Middle East office in Dubai
- Zawya, Jul 2025
Abu Dhabi
- Rent
- No comparable figure in our sources
- Occupancy and supply
- KEZAD 97 to 98% occupied, adding 250,000 sqm
- Cushman & Wakefield Core, Oct 2025; AD Ports, Mar 2026
- Capital
- Aldar bought the ALMARKAZ portfolio (182,500 sqm) for AED 530m
- Aldar, Jul 2025
Sharjah
- Rent
- No published institutional rent index
- JP8 analysis
- Occupancy and supply
- Around 40% of UAE industrial establishments; 2,800+ manufacturing facilities in 21 zones
- Invest in Sharjah, May 2026
- Capital
- AED 9.24bn of industrial transactions in 2025, up 88.7%, including land
- Sharjah RERD, Jan 2026
Northern Emirates
- Rent
- Up about 40% in H1 2025, from around AED 25 to AED 40 psf; Umm Al Thuoob down 18.5%
- Knight Frank, Jul 2025 and H1 2026
- Occupancy and supply
- More than 10m sq ft available
- Knight Frank, H1 2026
- Capital
- No comparable figure in our sources
Land and cost
The trade-offs behind every land decision
The best location can still be a bad investment at the wrong price.
Trade-off
What it gains
What it costs
Prime location against land price
GainsEasier letting and re-letting.
CostsThe land price can take the whole margin.
Higher specification against build cost
GainsFaster letting, more buyers at exit.
CostsWasted if local occupiers will not pay for it.
Large units against tenant depth
GainsEfficient to build; one lease fills it.
CostsFewer occupiers can take it, and it earns nothing until one does.
Small units against management
GainsMany occupiers, often more rent per sq ft.
CostsMore leases, more turnover, more work.
Freehold against leasehold
GainsEasier to finance and to sell.
CostsThe occupier’s best location may only come on a lease or musataha.
Capital
Finished buildings are fully priced. The return is made before they are finished.
Global buyers make it easier to sell a good building. They also bid let buildings up, which is why we would rather build than buy.
USD 5bn
Blackstone and Lunate GCC logistics platform
Blackstone, Oct 2025
<8%
Prime industrial yields: moving below 8%, broadly stable
Knight Frank, Feb 2026
4.31%
3-month EIBOR, 28 September 2026
CBUAE EIBOR fixing
Sources
Figures are quoted as published by the sources below, compiled in September 2026, and have not been independently verified. For discussion only.
- Trade and demandSection
- Dubai Media Office, non-oil foreign trade, Jul 2025 and Jul 2026
- Knight Frank, occupier requirements, Sep 2026
- EZDubai / Euromonitor, UAE e-commerce, May 2025
- The National and Khaleej Times, Dubai population, Jul 2026
- Sharjah Department of Statistics, 2025 census, Jun 2026
- Industry and infrastructureSection
- Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology, Operation 300bn, Dec 2024
- Invest in Sharjah, industrial base, May 2026
- DP World, Jebel Ali volumes and capacity, Feb 2025
- AGBI, Mar 2026, and The National, Oct 2025, Etihad Rail freight
- Gulftainer, Sajaa Bonded Dry Port, Dec 2025
- Supply and occupancySection
- Knight Frank, UAE industrial and logistics market review, Feb 2026
- Knight Frank, Northern Emirates availability, H1 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield Core, Dubai and KEZAD, Oct 2025
- AD Ports Group, FY2025 results, Mar 2026
- RentSection
- CBRE, UAE real estate market review, Feb 2026
- Knight Frank, Dubai submarket rents, Sep 2026
- Knight Frank, Northern Emirates rents, Jul 2025 and H1 2026
- JLL, rent concessions, Q2 2026
- CapitalSection
- Blackstone and Lunate, GLIDE announcement, Oct 2025
- Aldar, ALMARKAZ acquisition, Jul 2025
- Zawya, Prologis Dubai office, Jul 2025
- Sharjah Real Estate Registration Department via Gulf Today, Jan 2026
- Knight Frank, prime yields, Feb 2026
- Central Bank of the UAE, EIBOR fixing, 28 Sep 2026
- JP8 analysisSection
- Rent evidence outside Dubai
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